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WORLD ECONOMIC AND FINANCIAL SURVEYS. WORLD ECONOMIC. OUTLOOK. MAY A Survey by the Staff of the. International Monetary Fund. ERN.
Table of contents
- World Economic Outlook Reports;
- Account Options.
- Monetary Policy and Inflation!
- Casablanca to Casa Nuestra: A Moroccan adoption.
- Worldwide Cost of Living 12222.
See Box A2 for additional details. September No changes were introduced. April Growth and inflation projections for Serbia and Montenegro are included. September Growth and inflation projections are included for all countries through The country composition remains the same.
Economic forecasting - Wikipedia
December No changes were introduced. October This site provides the most frequently requested information from the WEO database consistent with the data published in the World Economic Outlook.
Please note:. Gross Domestic Product, Constant Prices national currency and annual percent change Real GDP is expressed in billions of national currency units; the base year is country-specific. Annual percentages of constant price GDP are year-on-year changes. Data are derived by dividing constant price GDP by total population. Data are derived by dividing current price GDP by total population.
Data are derived by first converting GDP in national currency to U. Estimates of output gaps are subject to a significant margin of uncertainty. For a discussion of approaches to calculating potential output, see Paula R. Data are based on individual countries' national accounts statistics. For many countries, the estimates of national saving are built up from national accounts data on gross domestic investment and from balance of payments-based data on net foreign investment. WEO weights have been created from primary sources and are used solely for purposes of generating country group composites.
For primary source information, please refer to one of the following sources: the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development, the World Bank, or the Penn World Tables. Inflation consumer prices; index and annual percent change Data for inflation are averages for the year, not end-of-period data. Please note: For many developing countries, figures for recent years are IMF staff estimates.
Data for some countries are for fiscal years. For many central and eastern European and CIS countries, inflation for the earlier years is measured on the basis of a retail price index. Consumer price indices with a broader and more up-to-date coverage are typically used for more recent years.
Euro area countries and the United Kingdom: data are based on Eurostat's harmonized index of consumer prices. New Zealand: excluding interest rate components. Netherlands: In , as a statistical effect, the introduction of a new health care system will lower Harmonized Index of Consumer Price HICP inflation by 4 percentage points but only in that year as private health expenditures drop out of the consumption basket; otherwise, inflation would be positive.
Unemployment Rate percent Please note: United States: the projections have been adjusted to reflect the survey techniques adopted by the US. Bureau of Labor Statistics in January Please refer to Box A1 in the World Economic Outlook for a summary of the policy assumptions underlying the projections. Please note: Australia: Cash basis, underlying balance. Austria: based on ESA95 methodology, according to which swap income is not included. France: data are adjusted for valuation changes of the foreign exchange stabilization fund.
Ireland: data include the impact of discharging future pension liabilities of the formerly state-owned telecommunications company at a cost of 1. Korea: data cover the consolidated central government including the social security funds but excluding privatization. New Zealand: data include balance of state-owned enterprises but exclude privatization proceeds. The structural budget position is defined as the actual budget deficit or surplus less the effects of cyclical deviations of output from potential output. Because of the margin of uncertainty that attaches to estimates of cyclical gaps and to tax and expenditure elasticities with respect to national income, indicators of structural budget positions should be interpreted as broad orders of magnitude.
Moreover, it is important to note that changes in structural budget balances are not necessarily attributable to policy changes but may reflect the built-in momentum of existing expenditure programs. In the period beyond that for which specific consolidation programs exist, it is assumed that the structural deficit remains unchanged.
General Government Gross and Net Debt national currency and ratio to GDP Government net debt comprises the stock at year-end of all government gross liabilities both to residents and nonresidents minus all government assets domestic as well as foreign. Gross debt includes government assets.
To avoid double counting, the data are based on a consolidated account eliminating liabilities and assets between components of the government, such as budgetary units and social security funds. Net debt of the general government should reflect a consolidated account of central government plus state, provincial, or local governments. Net Capital Flows U. Please note: the composition of several of the group aggregates appearing in the table " Emerging Market and Developing Countries: Net Capital Flows " differs from the standard WEO groups.
The table in Chapter 1 presents the data as follows: Private capital flows, net Private direct investment, net Private portfolio flows, net Other private capital flows, net Official flows, net Change in reserves Memorandum Current account Please note:. External Debt and Debt Service U. External debt data are not collected for advanced economies.
Current Account Balance U. Data for the world total reflects errors, omissions, and asymmetries in balance of payments statistics on current account, as well as the exclusion of data for international organizations and a limited number of countries. Calculated as the sum of the balance of individual countries. Please note: Euro area: calculated as the sum of the balances of individual euro area countries. Trade Volumes and Terms of Trade annual percent change Trade volume series represent trade values deflated by the unit value in order to obtain constant price data.
Terms of trade series are derived from the export unit value divided by the import unit value. The base year of the underlying data is Their price differentials reflect differences in American Petroleum Institute API measure of gravity, sulfur content, and overall weight. Six-month rate for the United States and Japan. Three-month rate for the euro area. WEO Groups and Aggregates The World Economic Outlook divides the world into two major country groups: advanced economies, and other emerging market and developing countries.
Rather than being based on strict criteria, economic or otherwise, this classification has evolved over time with the objective of facilitating analysis by providing a reasonably meaningful organization of data. A few countries are presently not included in these groups, either because they are not IMF members, and their economies are not monitored by the IMF, or because databases have not yet been compiled.
Cuba and the Democratic People's Republic of Korea are examples of countries that are not IMF members, whereas San Marino, among the advanced economies, and Aruba, among the developing countries, are examples of economies for which databases have not been completed. A complete list of the composition of the Groups is available.
Assumptions and Conventions
WEO Group Aggregates Composite data for country groups in the World Economic Outlook are either sums or weighted averages of data for individual countries. Unless otherwise indicated, multiyear averages of growth rates are expressed as compound annual rates of change. Arithmetically weighted averages are used for all data except inflation and money growth for the developing and transition country groups, for which geometric averages are used.
The following conventions apply: Country group composites for exchange rates, interest rates, and the growth rates of monetary aggregates are weighted by GDP converted to U. Composites for other data relating to the domestic economy, whether growth rates or ratios, are weighted by GDP valued at purchasing power parities PPPs as a share of total world or group GDP.
Composites for data relating to the domestic economy for the euro area 12 member countries throughout the entire period unless otherwise noted are aggregates of national source data using weights based on ECU exchange rates. Composite unemployment rates and employment growth are weighted by labor force as a share of group labor force. Composites relating to the external economy are sums of individual country data after conversion to U.
Chapters give an overview as well as more detailed analysis of the world economy; consider issues affecting industrial countries, developing countries, and economies in transition to market; and address topics of pressing current interest. Annexes, boxes, charts, and an extensive statistical appendix augment the text. Description : Global growth for is projected at 3. Prospects across the main countries and regions remain uneven. Relative to last year, the recovery in advanced economies is expected to pick up slightly, while activity in emerging market and developing economies is projected to slow for the fifth year in a row, primarily reflecting weaker prospects for some large emerging market economies and oil-exporting countries.
In an environment of declining commodity prices, reduced capital flows to emerging markets and pressure on their currencies, and increasing financial market volatility, downside risks to the outlook have risen, particularly for emerging market and developing economies.
Table of Contents Description : Global growth will receive a boost from lower oil prices, which reflect to an important extent higher supply. But this boost is projected to be more than offset by negative factors, including investment weakness as adjustment to diminished expectations about medium-term growth continues in many advanced and emerging market economies. Global growth remains moderate, with uneven prospects across the main countries and regions. It is projected to be 3.
Global Economic Prospects
Relative to last year, the outlook for advanced economies is improving, while growth in emerging market and developing economies is projected to be lower, primarily reflecting weaker prospects for some large emerging market economies and oil-exporting countries. Description : Despite setbacks, an uneven global recovery continues.
Largely due to weaker-than-expected global activity in the first half of , the growth forecast for the world economy has been revised downward to 3. The global growth projection for was lowered to 3. Description : The global growth projection for has been marked down by 0. With somewhat stronger growth expected in some advanced economies next year, the global growth projection for remains at 4 percent.
Global activity has broadly strengthened and is expected to improve further in —15, according to the April WEO, with much of the impetus for growth coming from advanced economies. Although downside risks have diminished overall, lower-than-expected inflation poses risks for advanced economies, there is increased financial volatility in emerging market economies, and increases in the cost of capital will likely dampen investment and weigh on growth. Advanced economy policymakers need to avoid a premature withdrawal of monetary accommodation.
Emerging market economy policymakers must adopt measures to changing fundamentals, facilitate external adjustment, further monetary policy tightening, and carry out structural reforms. The report includes a chapter that analyzes the causes of worldwide decreases in real interest rates since the s and concludes that global rates can be expected to rise in the medium term, but only moderately.
Activity is expected to improve further in —15, largely on account of recovery in the advanced economies. Global growth is now projected to be slightly higher in at around 3. But downward revisions to growth forecasts in some economies highlight continued fragilities, and downside risks remain. These dynamics raise new policy challenges. Advanced economies are growing again but must continue financial sector repair, pursue fiscal consolidation, and spur job growth.
Emerging market economies face the dual challenges of slowing growth and tighter global financial conditions. This issue of the World Economic Outlook examines the potential spillovers from these transitions and the appropriate policy responses. Chapter 3 explores how output comovements are influenced by policy and financial shocks, growth surprises, and other linkages. Chapter 4 assesses why certain emerging market economies were able to avoid the classical boom-and-bust cycle in the face of volatile capital flows during the global financial crisis.
Description Description : Activity is slowing down temporarily, and downside risks have increased again.
- Current highlights!
- Measures of Potential Inflation!
- World Economic Outlook Database for September .